by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-11-01 16:28:42
Wednesday brings a behemoth of a 13-game NBA slate, which just seems like too many basketball games. Let’s calm down a little, NBA. Things won’t get any better next week, as we have zero games on Tuesday followed by 14 games next Wednesday. It’s too much. Too much!
Anyway, we’ve gotta try and sort through all of the madness somehow. To make matters even more complicated, we’ve again got some big-name players carrying questionable tags. Brandon Ingram, Kyrie Irving, Tyrese Haliburton, Jimmy Butler, and Jalen Duren are among the notable names that may or may not suit up tonight, so we may have a busy night of late swapping on the horizon.
Below, I’ll highlight a few NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that should be worthy of your attention.
It’s Wild Out There
With all but 4 teams in action tonight, you can really play whoever you want on this slate. Ownership is often a little overrated when it comes to NBA DFS to begin with, and it almost certainly won’t be a major factor this evening. Some values will become pretty chalky if some of those aforementioned stars get ruled out later in the day, but you won’t have to try too hard to get leverage with so many viable roster combinations out there.
Stars-and-scrubs builds tend to gain steam on these kinds of slate. Luka Doncic will be an obvious top target if Kyrie misses another game, but you can also pay up for Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Domantas Sabonis all in good matchups, if you’re so inclined.
Of course, there’s also a world in which that value never emerges. It sounds like Trae Young is more likely than not to play through his Q tag, while Tyrese Haliburton did the same the other night. If we don’t wind up with a bevy of value, perhaps the balanced build makes more sense. Living in the midrange with the likes of Jalen Johnson, Ben Simmons, and Marcus Smart makes plenty of sense, too.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Optimizer Value
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SG/SF Lonnie Walker ($4,800)
The Nets are one of a few teams already dealing with a rash of injuries. They’re expected to be without 3 starters in Miami tonight. Spencer Dinwiddie is doubtful after injuring his ankle the other night, while Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton are still sidelined. For what it’s worth, Dennis Smith is also expected to sit with a hip injury.
Jacque Vaughn has been running a pretty tight rotation as a result. The matchup against a plodding Heat squad isn’t perfect, but these guys will be playing tons of minutes if the game stays relatively competitive. Lonnie Walker started the second half in Dinwiddie’s spot in the last game, and we have him projected to start tonight.
We know Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges will be happy to soak up most of the Brooklyn usage, but 32 projected minutes for Walker is more than enough to make him pop as one of the safer salary savers on the slate. We’re only dealing with a 25-minute sample of his work with Johnson, Dinwiddie, and Claxton on the bench this season, but Walker’s been quite productive (1.31 FP/min).
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Optimizer Value
PG Bones Hyland ($4,700)
James Harden won’t be suiting up for his new team tonight, while Terance Mann is doubtful to make his season debut as he continues to fight an ankle injury. The Clippers are playing the second half of a back-to-back, so there’s always a chance Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, or both take the night off to rest those brittle bones.
With a bunch of rotation players having been dealt to Philly yesterday, we saw Bones Hyland draw a surprise start in LA’s easy win over Orlando. He’s been a major source of usage (26.8%) off the bench early in the year, but he wound up finishing with a season-high 32 minutes in his first start. Norman Powell, meanwhile, played 29 minutes off the bench.
Bones isn’t guaranteed to start again tonight against the Lakers, but we’re projecting him to if Mann misses another game. He’s been a stable per-minute contributor over the course of his young career, and he’s a better point-per-dollar value on FanDuel, where we’ll get him at a $400 discount compared to DraftKings.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG/SG Scoot Henderson ($5,800 DK, $5,300 FD)
Will Scoot Henderson eventually become an All-Star? I have no idea. What I do know is that the Blazers will continue to give their prized rookie every opportunity to succeed. They have no real incentive to try and win games this season now that Damian Lillard is gone, and Scoot is the new face of the franchise. His minutes have been all over the map early on, but it was nice to see him play 34 the other night in what was really the team’s first non-blowout loss of the season.
I will make no excuses for him, of course. The learning curve going from the G League into the NBA is a steep one, and Henderson is averaging a paltry 0.58 DK FP/min early on. His usage (21.4%) is decent, but his shooting has been horrific. Scoot’s true shooting percentage (37.3%) ranks 334th in the league among 358 players. He also has at least 4 turnovers in every game and at least 5 fouls in each of his last 3 outings.
That all sounds terrible, so why should you play him? Well, he was the No. 2 pick in the draft for a reason, and I’d imagine it’s only a matter of time until he starts to figure things out. We saw some signs of life from Scoot in the last game, and the Blazers should be able to keep tonight’s game against the Pistons close. Portland is only a 4-point road underdog here against a fellow rebuilder.
As of this writing, we have Henderson pulling about 1% projected ownership on DK, while he’s in the 11% range on FanDuel.
C Alperen Sengun ($7,700 DK, $8,200 FD)
The Rockets are one of the few winless teams left, though they have a good shot to finally crack the win column tonight when they face the Hornets at home. The Hornets are again one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and Houston is actually a 2-point favorite here.
This team is a work in progress under Ime Udoka, but one of the bright spots has been Alperen Sengun. The Rockets are already playing through the big man on offense, and his 24.5% usage rate is the second-highest on the team. He’s also averaging 1.24 FP/min, which is in line with what we saw from him last season.
Charlotte hasn’t run at nearly as fast a pace as we saw last season, but it’s early. Any team with LaMelo Ball playing at a sluggish pace is simply doing it wrong, so I’d expect them to speed things up. This game has legitimate shootout potential, and we mercifully no longer have to worry about Stephen Silas yanking Sengun’s minutes around.
There’s always plenty of opportunity cost at center, particularly on a slate that features 26 teams. Sub-10% ownership feels like a safe assumption for Sengun and his slate-breaking upside.
