Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 9: A slate stocked with home underdogs (2024)

This week is dotted with interesting kinda/sorta upset picks. The Commanders have homefield advantage against a Vikings team that isn’t quite as good as its 6-1 record suggests. The fading Lions get the fading Packers at Ford Field. The two-win Jaguars are a home dog vs. the two-win Raiders in a game that probably won’t end in a 27-27 tie.

That doesn’t leave a ton of slam dunk picks — not that I’ve been great at identifying them anyway, since I started this section out with five straight misses. The Bengals certainly aren’t a lock given last Monday’s bed-wetting. They allowed a shaky quarterback to dominate them when Jacoby Brissett needed only 22 passes to throw for 278 yards. Joe Burrow struggled to drop into gear against the league’s 27th-ranked defense. Now Cincinnati is 4-4.

The Panthers, on the other hand, beat the Buccaneers in their second game without Matt Rhule and were two missed kicks away from beating the Falcons in their third. They’ve got a little momentum pushing them toward Ohio while the Bengals are stalling out.

But, uh, nah. PJ Walker may have connected with DJ Moore on that last-ditch dime in Week 8, but he spent the bulk of the first half missing open targets downfield with inaccurate passes. That worked against the Falcons’ awful AJ Terrell-less secondary. It won’t against the Bengals’ merely-bad group.

A home game against the league’s 27th-ranked passing defense is also an opportunity for Joe Burrow to prove he can be an elite quarterback without Ja’Marr Chase in his lineup. Cincinnati has its share of struggles to contend with in 2022. They’re nothing compared to what Carolina’s.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-5 (.375)

You could substitute the Green Bay Packers vs. the Detroit Lions here if you wanted. Both these games feature former NFC titans battling losing streaks behind former MVPs who have fallen off in 2022.

The Rams present the tougher challenge than a Lions team in the midst of a five-game, defense-optional skid, so the Bucs get the nod here. Los Angeles has faced a similar problem as Tampa Bay. Its veteran Super Bowl-winning quarterback has been unable to gain his footing behind a revamped offensive line that can’t really block anyone and a run game that averages fewer than 3.4 yards per carry.

Tom Brady has been able to remedy this with deep shots to Mike Evans. Matthew Stafford has Cooper Kupp, but Kupp is dealing with an ankle injury suffered late in a game that had already been decided and may not be 100 percent in Week 9. Tampa’s pressure rate of 22.9 percent isn’t nearly as bad as LA’s 12.6 percent, so while Brady will almost certainly have a couple drives ruined by Aaron Donald he’s still likely to have more time in the pocket than his veteran counterpart.

That’s enough to give the Bucs the edge in a game that looked like a preview of the NFC title game back in August and instead may feature two teams who fail to make it to the Wild Card round.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 4-3 (.571)

The Chargers have given up a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry. The Falcons run the ball like they’re performing high budget Big Ten cosplay for Comic-Con.

The Chargers allow 13.7 yards per catch to tight ends, third-worst in the NFL. The Falcons made it a point last week to involve Kyle Pitts more heavily in their offense (nine targets, five catches, 80 yards and a touchdown).

The Falcons’ biggest weakness is a passing defense that could feature a returning A.J. Terrell. The Chargers have a deficient offensive line whose inability to protect Justin Herbert has his efficiency rating trapped between Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff in what was supposed to be his breakthrough season:

Factor in Mike Williams’ absence and the fact crazy stuff finds a way to happen at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and you’ve got enough ingredients for an upset. A very dumb one, probably, but an upset nonetheless.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-6 (.250)